Leaders and team members are naturally prone to seek information that confirms their existing beliefs. And ignore evidence that contradicts their views.
This Confirmation Bias can severely undermine decision quality by blinding a leader and team to accept a false or incomplete reality.
To counteract this bias, good leaders actively seek disconfirming information to create a more balanced and objective view.
The benefits of pursuing information, data, and viewpoints that contradict the current decision pathway are well known.
They include revealing flaws in the team’s thinking and assumptions, highlighting alternate solutions, preventing groupthink, encouraging team members to voice their concerns, identifying unintended consequences, and reducing risks and strategic mistakes.
The issue is that team members often feel as if seeking disconfirming information slows down timely decision-making and diminishes the conviction to move forward with the current view.
Allowing a seed of doubt to enter via contrary information is thought to weaken the team’s commitment and confidence in the proposed decision. That’s why team members often resist the idea of seeking disconfirming views.
Leaders must make the case that seeking contrary views and data will actually strengthen commitment and conviction of a sound decision.
The reason is straightforward: After exposing the weaknesses and false assumptions of a prospective decision, if the proposal still remains attractive to the team, it means the decision is exemplary and highly supported based upon an objective view.
Good decisions hold up to critical scrutiny. Once they do, faith in the decision deepens.
The best leaders aren’t scared of exposing the team to disconfirming information during the decision-making process. They know that seeking only confirming evidence can lead to false confidence or a faulty choice.
They deliberately invite dissenting views, gather contrary evidence from external sources, and invite their own team members to raise challenges to the orthodoxy of the current view.
The first responsibility of every decision-maker is to question the assumptions and weaknesses of the decision they are about to make. If the team gets antsy about looking for reasons that might undermine the proposed decision, good leaders push through that discomfort and seek contrary views anyway.
In the end, a decision that stands the test of scrutiny is likely to be the best choice. Good leaders always invite disagreement before reaching a sound conclusion. Understanding the other side is a great way to strengthen your own.
