A Zebra Retreat is a term from medical decision-making that describes the tendency for doctors to shy away from pursuing a rare diagnosis (the “zebra”) even when the evidence strongly points to it as a possibility.
Because a zebra is so unusual or rare, medical professionals become hesitant to consider it. They fear others may doubt them, believe they are being unrealistic, or are wasting time and resources by chasing an unlikely prospect.
The zebra metaphor comes from medical training, where physicians are taught to look for horses when they hear hoofbeats, not for zebras. This means they should look for common causes before rare ones.
Unfortunately, ignoring possible zebras therefore becomes the default of medical diagnosis. In the medical world, this cognitive bias can lead to missed diagnoses and pose severe consequences for patients.
Of course, ignoring a rare possibility because entertaining a remote conclusion might be judged harshly is not limited to medicine.
Decision-makers of all stripes (pun intended) prefer not to consider isolated, unconventional, or innovative options, and often retreat from them to avoid being viewed as crackpots or eccentrics.
The bias encourages decision-makers to abandon possible solutions and opt for tried-and-true choices out of concern for their reputations. Novel proposals are seen as too risky and invite unwanted skepticism.
Less courageous or forward-thinking team members typically discourage pursuit of any solution that goes beyond what is considered normal, conventional, or traditional.
This bias can suppress innovation and prevent organizations from capitalizing on emerging opportunities, instead favoring incremental improvement and mimicking competitors.
Missing the breakthroughs of zebras means missing the high rewards that come with thinking out of the box.
Good leaders offset this bias by removing the peer pressure of negative judgment by asking for any option set to include innovative or even unorthodox ideas and solutions.
Simply knowing the leader has an appetite for less conventional solutions goes a long way to relieve the pressure to conform.
Innovative leaders have also found that they can use checklists and structured processes to ensure at least one unconventional option is genuinely considered.
Think of asking for multiple bids or proposals for construction work. Requiring a bid from a non-traditional source will typically result in an alternative proposal that doesn’t look like any of the others. The same idea applies to leader requests.
Convention is a good call much of the time, but every once in a while, an unorthodox solution breaks important new ground. Zebras are nothing to shy away from.
In the words of Dr. Seuss, “There’s no limit to how much you’ll know, depending on how far beyond zebra you go.”
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